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Tuesday, April 10, 2007

John Edwards leading in Iowa - tied for second in Florida

I know it's absurdly early for this stuff but I think it's starting to intrude on the consciousness of the blogosphere no matter what we do. The money being raised in amounts that defy the old conventional wisdom is dazzlingly jaw dropping and the local appearances already of McCain and Obama make it ridiculous if you try to ignore it. Now that John Edwards is coming to town on Thursday let's drop all pretense and give it the coverage it seems to merit. The national blogs are already on it. Daily Kos, Atrios, Mydd and Americablog have been following the money being raised and noting how the Dems are out pacing their GOP counterparts and out drawing them as well regarding public appearances. In any event, there's to much of a horse race aspect that's too intriguing to overlook and after all for us junkies it's plain fun. Let's get to it, shall we?

Chris Bowers over at Mydd has the latest polling data giving us a look at the field to date:

Iowa, 1/14: Edwards 30.3%, Clinton 26.8%, Obama 19.5% (four polls, all post Vilsack)
Nevada, 1/19: Clinton 32%, Obama 18.5%, Edwards 13.5% (two polls, one includes Gore)

New Hampshire, 1/22: Clinton 31.2%, Obama 25.6%, Edwards 19.8% (five polls, one poll includes Gore)
South Carolina, 1/29: Obama 29.5%, Clinton 28%, Edwards 18.5% (two polls)
Michigan (1/29 possible): Clinton 36.3%, Obama 26.8%, Edwards 16.3% (four polls)
Florida (1/29 possible): Clinton 35.3%, Obama 16.3%, Edwards 16% (three polls, one includes Gore)

The pleasant surprise here is that Edwards is now tied with Obama here in Florida. I really like the way Edwards is leading on the issues he has chosen to make an early stand on while the other consultant driven campaigns are standing around holding hands with focus groups. Edwards seems to be choosing the issues he knows will generate tantalizing media buzz making the other candidates react: the Fox debates, the Reid-Feingold bill and his mea culpa on Iraq which is aimed straight at Clinton.

Polling Report has more breakdowns and numbers to crunch if you are up for it.