The 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race has quickly become one of the most competitive statewide contests in a generation. Democrat James Talarico, fresh off his primary victory, enters the general election facing a Republican Party still split between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are headed to a May runoff after neither secured a majority. This unresolved GOP field gives Talarico an unusual early advantage in a state where Democrats have struggled for decades.
The latest Public Policy Polling survey (March 4–5) shows Talarico leading both Republicans in hypothetical matchups. He edges Cornyn 44% to 43% and holds a slightly larger lead over Paxton, 47% to 45%, results confirmed by Houston Public Media and FOX 7 Austin. While these margins fall within the poll’s error range, they highlight a striking dynamic: Talarico currently enjoys broader favorability than either Republican contender.
The GOP runoff adds further volatility. A Newsweek‑covered poll shows Paxton narrowly ahead of Cornyn 45% to 42% among likely Republican voters, underscoring deep internal fractures. Whoever emerges will enter the general election weakened—financially drained, politically bruised, and carrying high unfavorability numbers.
Taken together, the early polling suggests a race far more competitive than Texas has seen in decades. Talarico is not just viable; he is, at this moment, slightly ahead—an outcome few would have predicted even a year ago.
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