Gas Price Crisis, Inflation, and A Republican Party Looking For Leadership

Gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S. have surged to their highest levels in more than two years as the U.S.–Israel war with Iran disrupts global oil flows. The conflict has choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude prices soaring from around $70 to near $100–$108 a barrel and pushing the national average for regular gas above $3.80. Diesel is nearing $5. These increases ripple through the broader economy, raising transportation and production costs and driving inflation higher. Analysts warn that prices will continue climbing until oil shipments resume and seasonal summer‑blend pressures ease.

My "The Buck Stops Here" analysis: The real impact of rising fuel costs extends far beyond the pump. Higher energy prices will push inflation upward and steadily erode the cost of living for most Americans. Yet the Trump administration appears largely disengaged from these economic pressures, with the President focused instead on shaping the narrative around the Iran war and navigating high‑profile Congressional testimony and confirmation hearings. Given these dynamics, the political outlook for the Republican Party ranges from bleak to potentially catastrophic as economic anxiety intensifies and the administration struggles to regain control of the broader narrative. 

Right now the GOP is looking for leadership from Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson [R-LA CD#4], and Senate Majority Leader John Thune [R-SD] and they aren't getting it.  What they ARE getting is deflection from any number of brewing domestic crisis flash points, public performance art for the audience of one in the White House, and avoidance of town hall meetings with face to face questioning by constituents looking for solutions. 

Has A Chamber In Congress Ever Switched Majorities Between Elections? The Answer Is YES.

In the 119th Congress 218 House seats by one party is needed for a majority which is currently the exact number held by the Republicans. That is until today, Monday, March 9th, 2026.  

California Rep. Kevin Kiley [CA-CD3I] this morning announced he will formely leave the Republican party to become an Independent though he still plans to caucus with the GOP.  This brings their House GOP majority down to 217 where 218 is required for a majority. Kiley plans to caucus with the Republicans to keep his committee assignments. Speaker Mike Johnson still holds a very razor thin edge to keep a GOP majority but he can no longer risk absences, defections, or vacancies due to health or death for fear of losing a vote or flipping the gavel over to Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies [NY-CD8D].  Such a narrow razor thin majority begs the question: has a chamber in the House or Senate ever switched majorities between elections?  The answer is YES. 

Most Americans assume that control of Congress changes only on Election Day, when voters decide which party will lead the House and Senate. Yet the nation’s legislative history contains several extraordinary moments when the balance of power flipped between elections—quiet, often unexpected shifts triggered not by the ballot box but by the unpredictable realities of political life. These rare episodes reveal how fragile congressional majorities can be, especially when margins are thin and individual members hold enormous influence.

The Senate has experienced the most dramatic mid‑Congress reversals, largely because its small size makes every seat consequential. The most famous example came in 2001, when Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords left the Republican Party to become an Independent aligned with Democrats. His single decision instantly transformed a 50–50 Senate into a 51–49 Democratic majority, abruptly ending Republican control just months into the new administration. Earlier that same year, the Senate had briefly flipped in the opposite direction when Vice President Dick Cheney’s inauguration gave Republicans the tie‑breaking vote. Even in earlier decades, the Senate’s balance proved delicate: in 1953, the deaths of Democratic Senators Brien McMahon and Clyde Hoey shifted the chamber toward Republican control during the 83rd Congress, demonstrating how mortality alone could reshape national power.

The House of Representatives, with its 435 members, almost never changes hands mid‑term. Its size makes it far more resistant to sudden shifts. Yet even the House has one striking exception. In 1931, during the depths of the Great Depression, a series of deaths and special elections steadily eroded the Republican majority. By mid‑year, Democrats gained enough seats to take control of the chamber nearly a full year before the next general election. It remains the clearest and most dramatic example of a House majority flipping without voters going to the polls.

These episodes—spanning party switches, deaths, special elections, and constitutional quirks—underscore a simple truth: congressional power is not determined solely by national elections. It can hinge on individual choices, unexpected vacancies, and the shifting alliances that define political life. In these rare moments, history turns not on campaigns, but on circumstance.

The Blue States vs. Red States Meme Used By Trump Is making Us A "House Divided Against Itself" That Cannot Stand

Red States vs. Blue States.  Blue States vs. Red states.  Though that national dichotomy was already here before the political arrival of one Donald J. Trump on the scene it was a political dynamic he would seize upon to use as an advantage at the expense of what we had built as a nation after 151 post Civil War years of pain, crisis, and incredibly hard work that remains to this day still unfinished.  He used it like a sledge hammer to divide and drive wedges in the electorate in an attempt to add just enough to his grievance filled devoted base to prevail in 2016.  Now we find ourselves dealing with an even more exacerbated political dichotomy he used the first time due to a global pandemic to engineer another four year term to continue with an agenda of division, strife and a plan to deconstruct our federalist system while he continues to settle political scores.

Now the idea that our country is defined as a confederation of blue and red states that must somehow link together in league with other politically like minded entities to overcome the other  because they aren’t the “right kind” of Americans is being used by Trump at the expense of enough consensus government to hold our federalist system together.  There is now no doubt we have reached a point where the reasons for today’s political dichotomy smacks of some of the same reasons used by the southern states beginning in 1860 to file articles of secession in their state legislatures as a preamble to the Civil War.  Trump is exacerbating these differences in ways many of us felt was unimaginable at this point in our history.

On a late and lazy summer Wednesday afternoon at 5:00 pm on June 16^th, 1858 in the Illinois state house Abraham Lincoln found himself standing before the State Republican convention as he started a speech that would rock the political electorate at its very core:

“….If we could first know where we are, and whither we are tending, we could then better judge what to do, and how to do it.  We are now far into the fifth year, since a policy was initiated, with the avowed object, and confident promise, of putting an end to slavery agitation.  Under the operation of that policy, that agitation has not only, not ceased, but has constantly augmented.  In my opinion, it will not cease, until a crisis shall have been reached, and passed.  A house divided against itself cannot stand."  

Once he finished it would not only rocket him into the national spot light as a Presidential candidate for 1860, it would define what it meant to be a nation so fraught with a political crisis of division that it threatened to disintegrate beyond repair before our eyes if steps weren’t taken to bring it back together.  Of course we know what followed:  a Civil War that would kill 600,000 Americans by its end as a horribly tragic first step on the way to repairing what was.

We now find ourselves with a President who is not only trying to avoid that crisis of division but instead is relying on it as a road map to victory at the expense of the very fabric that makes us a beacon to the world.  Using the power of his office to punish those states that don’t align with his political goals is a dangerous precedent to use at this point in our history after such a long, hard road after 1865.

The founding fathers took great pains to make us a more unified entity after the failures of the Articles of Confederation that was leading to a division of states similar to what we are seeing today where one state is pitted against another at the expense of a national entity as opposed to a confederation of regions with their own ideas of political, social and economic policy.  Their idea was something called a Constitution that began with these words: 

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America." 

“We the people” meaning we, as Americans are tasked with this call to make a more perfect union for one and all.  THIS one statement made us and defined who we are:  Americans.  It wasn’t perfect, as it took a Civil War to realize the true meaning of this sentiment.  But it was something we aspired to and was STILL working on until the present, what John F. Kennedy called, the “responsible officer of government” set out to destroy it.  Lincoln also once said, “……“the dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present….we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country.”  The time to “think anew, and act anew” is here.  It’s a time worn adage that every general election for the President of the United States is always called the ‘most important election in our history.’  This time it isn’t just rhetoric, it’s real.  Real enough that any sane citizen can see the fabric of our nation is starting to come undone.  That’s how important the coming general election for 2020 is. 

If we don’t take steps to repair what Trump has done we will find ourselves where Lincoln found himself on that fateful trip from Springfield, Illinois to Washington, D.C. to prepare for his oath of office.  There is still time but here is precious little left.  If Trump finds his way to being the “responsible officer of government” again I’m not sure time won’t have run out.  

A Bull In A China Shop

I had a great meeting this morning with a group in my church aptly named: "Playing With Ideas."  On the first of the month the topic is always 'Current Events.'  As one might imagine the focus of conversation centered on the GOP nomination contest and Donald Trump.  What I found interesting was the variation of ideas offered to define his appeal to certain groups based on personal vignettes and local readings of Florida primary results in and around regional counties.  What fascinated me was the different number of reasons people attributed to his appeal to a specific demographic whether it was a localized upper income group or a generalization based on what would constitute a 'low information' voter.

Driving home I realized that the main reason Donald Trump has a large enough appeal to be in contention as a nominee was the fact he was something of a blank slate if you will.  A blank slate one could use to make any justification they wanted for him to be worthy of their support due to fact they hate the status quo and what they current make up of the GOP represents:  an inability to act on the agenda they've had since the Gingrich years in the 1990's.

I keep hearing in various social media and mainstream media outlets a meme that really came home to me on my pensive drive home.  The GOP rank and file voter detests the current make up of the GOP and what it has become and Donald Trump represents that feeling no matter what he says he represents issue wise.  He is the strongman to effect change on a party that has become moribund in intransigence at the expense of compromise to be purist in their beliefs that range from privatization of most government functions to the eradication of what they define as 'entitlements.'  Donald Trump represents someone that will remake that intransigence through tactics that represent authoritarianism and an ability to 'get things done' on sheer will.

Unfortunately for his supporters our system of government not only doesn't work that way, it was designed specifically not to.  Unless his supporters find a way to fundamentally change the way our government works as a representative republic it is not possible for a Donald Trump like political entity   My fear is there are people out there that tire of our system of incremental change through a deliberative process.  Their goal is to change our system of government that favors authoritarianism and the ability to exact change on a dime without thought out deliberation from a representative body.  History is filled with examples of what they want and as usual it never ends well for either the strongman they envision for the people that put them their in the first place.

Jacksonville Mayor & City Council District 1 Candidate Forum Recap

As promised here is my report on the District 1 Candidate Forum this past Thurday, February 17th put on by my neighborhood organization: The Alderman Park Civic Association. I've decided not to use any photos I took during the evening because of the poor quality of the photos and the lack of competency on the part of the operator. It was held off Lone Star Rd. in Alderman Park’s St. Andrews Episcopal Church. It was a fairly well attended event with a full slate of candidates shaking hands and kissing babies. The TU was even present. The first thing I noticed was the demographics of the crowd: mostly white, gray-haired, fairly balanced gender mix, probably retired and very, very conservative. The President of the Association is a Teaparty Republican who was a Rick Scott backer sporting one of those “Have You Prayed For A Liberal” bumper stickers on his car. It always strikes me that conservative’s bumpers always conveys a message to marginalize someone’s philosophy or belief system as it is never something to persuade. In any event, there is no doubt political ambitions are bubbling in that head as he is probably a good bet for a future District 1 City Council candidate once Clay Yarborough decides to take his homophobia and religious bigotry to the state house in some capacity.

I walked around and saw a couple of neighborhood folks I knew and exchanged pleasantries and took a few photos, which had the effect of everyone giving me a wary eye. There was no doubt that in all probability, with the exception of DINO’s Warren Lee and Ken Jefferson, I and poor old out manned Darryl Fleming, a candidate for Clay Yarborough’s City Council seat, were the only Democrats in the room. One of the Group 5 at large candidates for City Council, Robin Lumb, ambled over and introduced himself and left a card and then the forum was gaveled to order by the intrepid association President.

During the course of the evening three main themes emerged from the Republican cavalcade of tax cuttin’ cowboys as they burnished their conservative credentials for three minutes of allotted time to address the audience: (1) [Wait for it…] tax cuts!; (2) reducing the size of government [a shocker, I know]; and finally (3) union basing. That last one caught me off guard but looking at the slate of candidates I really should have expected it. Everyone seemed to be against the Craig Airfield extension and for some reason round-a-bouts.

The candidates for Mayor that did show up were Dino Warren Lee, and GOP’ers Mike Hogan, and Rick Mullaney. I guess Audrey Moran was reaching out to Democrats somewhere else in the city that evening along with Democrat Alvin Brown since we were at a minimum in the room. I was hoping Ms. Moran would be there so I could ask her about her UNF forum statement regarding taxes and fees but considering the crowd in attendance and their hostility to anything approaching the statement she made at UNF it might have been a wise decision to have a convenient schedule conflict as an alibi. Mike Hogan and Rick Mullaney looked like two of Pavlov’s dogs barking in unison on taxcuts [More! More!] and cutting government and making it smaller. I should follow them around with a little bell and ring it and watch them bark out Taxcuts! like one ofo Pavolov's subjects. But my liberal sensibilities tell me that’s cruel. Rick Mullaney touted his “34 point plan to […wait for it] shrink government and cut taxes. Mike Hogan was the one candidate who said no more round-a-bouts and got a smattering of applause. He followed that up with a pledge against excessive salaries as well (sorry city government workers – that means no raises for you). Warren Lee was against the Craig Airfield extension proposal but other than that who knows. He gave a bio and took a question about unions to which he replied “we need serious budget cuts.” DINO’s don’t do very well when they act Republican because why vote for one when you can vote for a real one.

The candidates for Jacksonville Sheriff were first with the staid and serious Sheriff Rutherford giving credit to Cowford’s homicide rate decline the past year to an aggresive district attorney’s office and JSO’s community outreach programs, which dropped us out of our number one ranking in the state for murder. When you can beat out Miami in that category you know there is some serious ammunition being expended into some bodies demonstrating one’s right to bear arms. He did fail to mention our fair city still leading the way in other felonies but no one was counting once the decline in violent deaths was noted. Once a discussion of guns was brought up all the following candidates no matter the office usually demonstrated their conservative credentials by extolling the virtues of the 2nd Amendment. Seems like the constitution is always sacred to them unless of course its the parts they don’t like (i.e. 14th Amendment). I wanted to ask DINO Sheriff candidate Ken Jefferson about his response to a question at an earlier forum for the Sheriff candidates reported by TU PolitiJax writer Abel Harding about his policy regarding armed suspects – “Kill’em, shoot’em, and bury’em. But I figured all that would do is gin up the concealed and carry crowd and I thought better of it.

Tax Collector and Property Appraiser candidates were all GOP candidates talking efficiency and making your visits to their offices like a retail operation. They wanted to make your visit(s) the quickest and most accessible to the services you need which of course sounds reasonable. But that’s like the roadside inn touting clean rooms instead of something more than basic services. Someone in the audience wanted to know why Mike Hogan’s name was on every Tax Collector sign and thought it was a frivolous expense and is the next office holder going to do the same. They stumbled over each other saying no.

Now we come to the Candidates for Dist. 1: Yarborough, Brock and Fleming. As the lone Democrat Mr. Fleming didn’t have much to offer other than his experience about being in the military and working in Pentagon procurement offices and heavily involved in the Boy Scouts. Clay Yarborough talked about his fiancé and said basically he’s going to keep doing the same old same old and voting no on everything that moves. I’ve seen more vision at the St. Augustine school for the blind than these stuffed shirts offered all night. This brings us to the one candidate who stood out for me because he offered an actual idea for the community: Republican candidate Lindsey Brock. He was very personable and cordial and spoke to the members of the audience and it was what he didn’t do that caught my attention more than anything else. He didn’t lead off with the standard Duval County GOP line about tax cuts and shrinking government. He talked about coming up with a program to link JU students with small businesses and show them how attractive a community Arlington can be with their vibrant ideas and talent. I almost stood up and shouted Here! Here!. I watched to see if anyone other than myself found that interesting – then nothing. He actually said he wanted to do something about bringing small businesses back to Arlington. I nearly fainted.

It was at this point I’d decided I couldn’t take anymore of this charade. District 2 and at large candidates were getting ready to speak and I just could not bear to hear more of the same. I saw Mr. Lindsey headed for the back of the room when he finished and before I knew it we were outside having a discussion about his ideas and I was able to give my views on what community means to me and my ideas about the Jacksonville Economic Development Commission. He actually listened to what I had to say and engaged me about some of those ideas. Once I left I came home and immediately sent an email telling him he was the only candidate present that seemed reasonably grounded and open to what others had to say. I’ll have more to say about him later. Even though I’m diametrically opposed to almost every position he holds he does come across as someone you could actually work with.

I wanted to end the recap with some of the questions that were asked during the course of the evening. Someone stood up with a question for Rick Mullaney about unions. After giving a preamble that was straight off one of off Fox News’ Sean Hannity/Glenn Beck anti-union tirades about how they are responsible for choking off government revenue he wanted to know how he felt about unions. After nodding in agreement while that guy went on before his question and even mouthing “That’s right” when he remarked about unions being a revenue problem for the city he basically answered he was for sitting down and setting union leadership straight about where they stood with him and telling them his guidelines for dealing with them. Once they understood he would not budge an inch on any demand then he would be glad to tell them at a sit down to live with it. What a guy. I wanted to shout to him the next time his house caught on fire or he needed a cop, his call would be answered by an actual taxpaying union member(s). But the thick fog of ideology would have prevented any understanding of that concept.

Next someone asked about shutting down Terry Parker and making it a magnet school. One of the candidates, whom at present I can’t remember, said Terry Parker was a tradition in the community, then he went on to say was expressly not for closing it down. He asked the questioner to delay taking his family out of Arlington and work together with the community to improve the school.

And finally there was one question I wanted to cover. A lady, I think, stood up and asked why we had a storm runoff fee/tax and when we had an actual problem with storm runoff water she couldn’t get any service. I was stunned, though I shouldn’t have been, at the response she got. Several candidates took the microphone and said they had nothing to do with that current tax/fee. They explained to her what it actually was but went no further than that. Earlier in the evening when Kurt Kravitz, the candidate for Tax Collector spoke he mentioned his background was a successful business man with the Jacksonville Suns who made his employees do at least three different jobs and how he wanted to wanted the employees at the Tax Collector’s office do the same. Once they finished denying to the lady they had nothing to do with that tax I wanted to stand up and tell her this is an example of what we are in for. I wanted to tell her the reason she and others, who could be heard grumbling in agreement with her as she spoke, were not getting a response for that problem even though they were paying a fee was an example of shrinking government/city services what were already cut to the bone. On top of that here we are listening to some guy tell us he’s going to make his employees work more than one job as well. I wanted to say Kravitz was the perfect example of this mindset and this is not only what we have been going through for the past 12 years of dominant GOP rule but that we can expect more of the same in the future with these characters.

Though this sums of my recap I’ll have more to say later. I want to post the speech Democrat Daryl Fleming should have given and I will be commenting further about the race as it nears its conclusion for Mayor and District 1.

The GOP Gets Away With Another One

While the plaudits continue to roll in for President Obama's question and answer performance before the GOP retreat in Baltimore, MD this past week I fine it interesting the MSM media and all the top progressive bloggers with their subsequent commenters seems to have missed something that I found quite annoying during this historic event. Every chance a Republican Representative had to refer to the Democratic party they used the pejorative terms "Democrat Party", "Democrat policies" & "Democrat leadership." The President in has admonitions to them seems to have let that one slide. I am still somewhat bemused how the Republican leadership continues to present the posture of a 10 year old as they pretend to "reach out" for compromise. Trying to have a dialog with someone in opposition with you while calling them names is a funny way of doing that.

My one minor complaint about the President's appearance before his critics as they tried a series of gottcha's is his missed opportunity to call them on being in control of every branch of government for six years and failing to not only enact any of the ideas they were presenting tho the President but failing to even bring them up. Even Chris Matthews caught that one in his role as the resident MSNBC diva in his post Q & A analysis. This makes their stance of "NO" to every Democratic party move at reform look even more ridiculous and hypocritical.

Little Movement In Duval County Registered Voter Gains & Party ID's

Since I'm doing a little blog site cleanup and updating I was taking a look at the number of Duval County registered voter and party ID breakdown from May of 2008 and comparing it to the new year and found the results to be quite unsurprising. This would seem par for the course in light of how both Democratically controlled houses have performed since the 2008 election results.

The poor performance put forth by both houses only reinforces those voters' qualms about politics in general and makes a fine recipe for disaster at the polls this coming November for the Democratic party. Watching the party allowing the likes of Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson to hold them hostage and then employing a strategy of pandering to Olympia Snowe and et al for the construction of a Potemkin village of bipartisanship was mind boggling. Watching this train wreck strategy that could only lead to a perfect storm for electoral disaster for the Democrats in the 2010 midterms was enough to make political junkies like myself along with local and regional political acolytes want to take the gas.

First let's look at the numbers for a comparative breakdown for 01/03/2010 vs. 05/30/2008:

REGISTERED VOTERS As OF 01/03/2010

Democratic: 240,688 (45.43%)

Republicans: 193,103 (36.45%)

Other: 96,023 (18.19%)Total: 529,814

REGISTERED VOTERS AS OF 05/30/2008

Democrats: 216,908 (44.65%)

Republicans: 184,174 (37.91%)

Other: 84,695 (17.43%)Total: 485,777

A 1% gain for the Democratic Party here over this 18 month period is nothing to write home about. In fact if there is any news in this comparative at all, it would be how the Duval County Republican party has managed to stave off disaster by avoiding a tsunami of voter registration discontent and it translating into a widening shift in the gap of party ID and growth. If the last eight years could not drive a widening gap in this regard then I'm not sure its possible to make it happen under any circumstances. George W. Bush by any stretch of imagination was an unmitigated disaster of a President and for Republicans in general. There is not doubt that this led to a loss of both houses for the Republicans but just barely when one takes the time to analyze the numbers for real world impact.

The Democrats still have a lot of work to do to redeem themselves. At this point in the game redemption would only mitigate losses to a minimum, not stop them. Let's hope the Democrats have it in them. Only time will tell.