A Dream Realized

There is so much to write about now. My mind is spinning with so much to say and write. My writer's block has been overcome by the tsunami of joy that has rained down over me. But for the moment while I collect my thoughts let me utter the words aloud as I type them:

To all the world, I present to you Barack Obama:

The 44th President of the United States

August 28th, 1968 in front of the Lincoln Memorial, Wahington D.C.
Martin Luther King, Jr. addresses the nation:

"I have a dream today!

I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, and every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight; "and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed and all flesh shall see it together."

This is our hope, and this is the faith that I go back to the South with.

With this faith, we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. With this faith, we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith, we will be able to work together, to pray together, to struggle together, to go to jail together, to stand up for freedom together, knowing that we will be free one day.

And this will be the day -- this will be the day when all of God's children will be able to sing with new meaning:

And if America is to be a great nation, this must become true."

Down To The Wire

Well here we are a little more than 36 hours before the polls in Kentucky close and award the first Electoral College votes of the evening. Since the conventions I have found myself almost unable to post anything about the election this year after obsessing over it for the past four years. I had simply lapsed into a writer’s block mode as I opted instead to obsessively follow the state of the race on a variety of blogs on a daily basis. Now with a little more than a day and a half left to go I feel some kind of release to actually post.

So let me start with my prediction which is at this point driven by paranoia and fear tilting me to the most conservatively optimistic one I can conjure:

I actually believe Florida will slip out of Obama’s grasp. Even with McCain lacking a ground game here in the face of an Obama’s statewide juggernaut GOTV effort it won’t be enough. I had hopes a couple of weeks ago of him being in a position to steal Indiana, North Carolina and Georgia from their red state purgatory. Now I realize it just won’t happen. At one point I was even looking forward to Obama a position to crush this most vile version of Republicanism that has been mutating over the past 28 years into a party that preys on fear and paranoia justifying questions about one’s patriotism and whether certain parts of the country is included in a “real” America.

In these last hours I feel like Obama will still win but only barely. The last time I felt confident and sure of victory was in 1992 and 1996. Those were the only two times I have able to experience that feeling in my voting lifetime. As late as two weeks ago I had that same feeling now as I did in 1992. But with the new world of the Internet and polling technology being open to public scrutiny that has all changed the dynamic for me. I’m back to the hand wringing state I was before the primaries began in January. Even now that seems like a century ago. That’s how weird this dynamic is for me in this world of immediate information and hourly news cycles.

For me I can’t imagine a world where the American electorate would allow Sarah Palin so close to the reins of power. Yet, this is the same electorate that allowed an intellectually challenged and ideologically driven Governor from Texas to keep the reins of power in 2004. With that in mind I should not be surprised how close someone like Sarah Palin is to the reins of power. My memories of election nights gone past are mostly filled with vivid pain and disappointment that has seared them into my conscience as I tend to invest so much emotion into our national political outcomes.

I can still remember that horrible night in 1984 when I was living in North Carolina and driving home from an election watch party on a long and dark highway in the rural Piedmont area. Though intellectually I knew Mondale would be crushed Reagan once he overcame Gary Hart to sew up the nomination I had not realized how devastating it would still be. It can almost be compared to an immediate family member being on a long arc downward of a terminal illness that everyone knows what the final result will be and yet still be devastated once the moment arrives. As I drove home that night on that long lonely road after months of working on the Mondale and Gov. Hunt campaign where he unsuccessfully tried to unseat a racist Sen. Jesse Helms the emotions of it all finally overcame my cool and politically astute intellect. I realized what was happening and I pulled over to the side of the road and wept. As I sat there I couldn’t believe I was feeling this way but there it was.

It was more about the future than the election itself that horrible night. I realized with that win the Republicans had staked out a generational claim on the White House. I knew the country would eventually take a turn backwards toward a baser common denomination of the electorate and appeal to its fears, paranoia and prejudices culminating in someone like George W. Bush taking the reins of government and actually acting on them driving the United States into an intellectually dark period.
Now here we are within 36 hours to right that ship and I’m still not sure we will chose the correct path that will lead us into a new age of reason and intellectual honesty and instead keep allowing our base and dark emotional side of the body politic to decide our path to the future.

I find myself now realizing that if the aggregate persona that has been culminating over the past 28 years in the form of one George W. Bush cannot be overcome now with a financial disaster literally falling around us I can’t see another Democrat in the White House in what is left in my lifetime. The realignment or electoral shift will not be possible within the next two generations. Here’s hoping our body politic will let the better angels of our psyche prevail for the sake of my 2 ½ year old daughter.

Nevada post debate analysis: Edwards won

[This is my analysis I diaried on Daily Kos earlier this evening] As usual the MSM talking heads refuse to address the issues that were discussed this evening while instead talking about personalities ad nausem like this was a hollywood gossip programmer. Here is why Edwards shined this evening: his answer on his wrong vote on the never passed 2002 Bankruptcy bill and his clarifing position on Iraq.

First, his vote on that 2002 Bankruptcy bill. Let me get this out of way by saying Edwards did miss an opportunity to explain why this bill failed in committee. He voted for the bill initially because of the raise in minimum wage provision which is also the reason it died. The GOP just would not have anything to do with a raise in the minimum wage. Hillary acted confused or forgetful on why it failed and tried to explain her mea culpa as well. But Edwards did did tie the bankruptcies in this country with catastrophic medical illnesses.

As usual the MSM talking heads refuse to address the issues that were discussed this evening while instead talking about personalities ad nausem like this was a hollywood gossip programmer. Here is why Edwards shined this evening: his answer on his wrong vote on the never passed 2002 Bankruptcy bill and his clarifing position on Iraq.

First, his vote on that 2002 Bankruptcy bill. Let me get this out of way by saying Edwards did miss an opportunity to explain why this bill failed in committee. He voted for the bill initially because of the raise in minimum wage provision which is also the reason it died. The GOP just would not have anything to do with a raise in the minimum wage. Hillary acted confused or forgetful on why it failed and tried to explain her mea culpa as well. But Edwards did did tie the bankruptcies in this country with catastrophic medical illnesses.

Studies have continually shown that catastrophic medical illnesses are the core of bankruptcies that are filled. The 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Act, which was called the "Bankruptcy Abuse Bill" by the right was passed even though studies showed it had nothing to do with abuse and every thing to do a majority of them due to medical catastrophy.

Edwards consistently ties these two together and then treats them as separate problems that heve everything to do with one another. He shows how it consistently exposes the broken health care system in this country. The talking head may not be talking about it but the average American was reading Edwards all the way this evening.

Then there was Iraq. Both Clinton and Obama have repeated positions linking combat troops being left in Iraq as a residual force to handle border issues and to prevent a regrouping Al Queada(sp?). Edwards, as he has continously done so, talked about combat troops being on the ground in Iraq, no matter in what capacity, and the problems they pose for pragmatic and effective policy formulation in the Middle East. Obama and Clinton have never mentioned the serious policy implication for the rest of the Middle East the combat troops pose in thier capacity as occupiers. The general population at large throughout the Middle East clearly sees the connection as a threat to their cultural and religious sovereignty and is reminded on a daily basis that Iraq is a country that is occupied by a western foreign force. This doesn't even touch on the internal issues where major segments of the population sees us as an invading occupying force posing a threat to their cultural dominance.
Not one co the talking heads discussed this. But you can bet the average American voter heard Edwards loud and clear with nodding heads.

New Hampshire Primary Predictions

Well, Markos made his, so why not join in the madness and fun and see just how wrong I can be? I missed the mark badly on Iowa so let's see how close I can come here. With the Independent votes weilding such power in this open primary it's natural to assume Obama and McCain will be the benefactors. In any event here's my take:

• Obama: 43%
• Edwards: 23%
• Cliinton: 21%

I think Hillary is bleeding so badly here she'll have to wait until Michigan and the 2/5/08 NY Primary to regain some footing. All we can do now is wait. As for the GOP:

• Romney: 31%
• McCain: 29%
• The Huckster: 16%
• & The Rest

Ah, the fun begins in only a few hours. Obama's victory speech should be interesting.

Update: I'll have interesting new data on Edwards surging the media is desparately trying to avoid later.

Final New Hampshire Primary Poll & The Economy

Joe Sudbay via AmericaBlog relates the final Reuters/Zogby poll through yesterday in New Hampshire. No surprises except maybe McCain opening up a wider lead on Romney. With the MSM convinced Hillary’s campaign is imploding her press coverage is only going to get worse having a drag on any momentum she needs to get moving. Her campaign is already acknowledging placing second. She won't be able to claim an aura of the "Comeback Kid" status ala her husband in '92 when he placed second to the late Paul Tsongus. The dynamic here is not the same. Obama’s whole campaign aura just breathes new and fresh perspectives on problems that have gone on for decades (i.e. medical coverage & prescription drugs). There is no doubt now he’s the frontrunner for the nomination. It will be fun to watch as Obama rolls onward. He will hit that inevitable bump and a slight derailment that all campaigns go through. It won't be important what that derailment is, or what caused it, what's important will be how he handles it. That will be interesting to watch.

Americablog is just full of great stuff this morning. Via Chris in Paris we have a great post on Bushian economics and the imploding middle class. Chris sites The Gavel where you can see a collection of quotes from the WH on the economy and how they match up with reality. It would be comical if it weren’t so tragic for the working families and those struggling to get ahead. Let’s just take a look at one sample of the delusional disconnect spouted from the White House:

PRESIDENT BUSH:
“And [my economic] plan worked. If you think about where we were coming out of 2001 and where we are today, you can’t help but say the plan worked; cutting taxes helped stimulate economic growth.” [12/17/07]
COMMERCE SECRETARY CARLOS M. GUTIERREZ:
“Whenever someone loses a job, it is tough on them and their family. So we are not complacent and firmly believe it’s important that we continue to promote pro-growth policies such as making the tax cuts permanent…” [1/4/08]

No matter how hard it’s raining outside, in the Bush White House it’s always a beautiful sunny day, isn’t it? Except outside in the real world it’s an entirely different reality:

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com:
“This is unambiguously negative…The economy is on the edge of recession, if we’re not already engulfed in one.” [1/5/08]
Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Group, Inc.:
“There’s nothing heartwarming about this report…It confirms what economists have been worried about, which is a broad-based economic slowdown.” [1/5/08]

This site is a must read but fair warning, do so at the risk of your own sanity. Its all in The Gavel.

Some Final Musings On Iowa

Before turning our undivided attention to New Hampshire I wanted to post some final thoughts and a couple of interesting data points I picked up from reading a variety of post-mortems around the net.

John Aravosis of Americablog made a point that none of the pundits I listened to on CNN or MSNBC made last night: Not only did Hillary still get more votes than Huckabee from her third place finish, she nearly doubled Huckabee’s vote total. This does not bode well for the GOP in November. Not only that, Romney has been running ads here in Florida and they have been directed against Hillary. What a magnificent drain of Tagg Romney’s inheritance.

Leave it to the BBC news services to make an astounding observation about Iowa and that states record with women candidates. From Justin Webb’s blog of the BBC news he informs us of this morsel of electoral history:

“And a thought about Hillary’s predicament: is it relevant that Iowa has never elected a woman to congress or to the Governor’s mansion? Only Mississippi has the same record.”

This little fact was not only relevant but a perfect example of how low the bar has been lowered regarding our mainstream media and what we expect out of them since I had to find this out through the foreign press. To expand on Mr. Webb’s point Iowa has never been kind electorally to the Clintons as he lost Iowa in both of his general elections for President and the Iowa caucus in 1992. Here’s a bet that President Clinton was well aware of his family’s record in Iowa. Looking back it might have been a better strategy to skip Iowa, keep the resources and get a head start on her rivals in New Hamphire considering the history.

Then there is this interesting breakdown of number from Rolling Stone's Tim Dickerson via Pensecola Beach Blog:

"He edged her out among Democrats 32/31, and cleaned her clock among independents (44/17) and wayward Republicans (41/10). He beat her among people making less than $15,000 (37/30) and more than $100,000 (41/19). He beat her among health-care voters (34/30) and suburban voters (30/25).Most astounding
however, he beat her among her core supporters, women, by five points. What more can I say than — in a night of mind boggling statistics — that that’s the stat of the night.A black man did this. In a state that’s 96 percent white. This is truly a historic night in America."

As Beach Blogger notes Hillary was beat out by Obama "eight ways to Sunday."

It's not over yet and anything can happen. The fact of the matter is Obama still only beat Hillary by 1% when independent voters are removed from the totals. That means Obama still has work to do and who knows how New Hamphire will react.
As a supporter of former Sen. John Edwards I really took to heart something diarist andydoubtless over at Daily Kos said in the aftermath of Iowa:

“I support Edwards. I rejoice over Obama”

Sentiments that could not have been better said.

Is this a great country or what?

Iowa Caucus Wrap

The post caucus speeches given by Obama, Edwards, and Clinton were all pretty good. Edwards gave a pretty good speech that was typical John Edwards. The speech Barack Obama gave was blistering. There is no doubt the guy has something special and a charisma that can't be denied. Hopefully his speech will be on YouTube soon enough and I will post it here. Of course everyone is saying that Edwards is done and he has nowhere to go from here with a weak organization in New Hampshire. Even the left blogosphere seems to have embraced the idea Edwards is done as with this typical reflection by Firedoglake's Jane Hampshire:

"Not sure where Edwards goes from here. Obama clearly won the "not Hillary" vote."

I can't disagree with her rather cryptic observation but I will say this, New Hampshire is an open primary where Independents can cross over and vote. The real test for Obama will be a closed Democratic primary and how he does with people who think Democrats should pick the nominee. All we can do now is wait and see. Here's a prediction from someone whose prediction was totally wrong tonight: Obama wins New Hampshire and he runs the table.

Again, I hope to have all of Obama's speech in its entirety later. Looks like this election will be one for the history books and the fun is only beginning. See? I'm not as depressed as I anticipated I would be!

Update I: I have Obama's Iowa Caucus victory speech up on the right sidebar under a new section titled: "Post Caucus/Primary Speeches." As Edwards' and Clinton's come in I'll post them as well.